War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".